If there was ever a doubt about how Donald Trump would respond to the
news that Robert Mueller, the special counsel, had impanelled a grand
jury in Washington, D.C., to assist with his Russia investigation, Trump dispelled it in characteristic fashion during a campaign-style rally in
Huntington, West Virginia, on Thursday night.

“Have you seen any Russians in West Virginia or Ohio or Pennsylvania?”
he mockingly asked a large and enthusiastic crowd. “Are there any
Russians here tonight? Any Russians?” Just a few hours earlier, the Wall Street Journal had broken the news about the grand jury. And Reuters had reported that the grand jury had already issued subpoenas relating to a meeting at Trump Tower, last June, between Donald Trump, Jr., and
several individuals with ties to the Russian government. Calling a grand
jury doesn’t indicate that any charges are necessarily on the way, but
the two stories did confirm that Mueller’s investigation is moving
ahead, and that it has already closed in on the President’s family. (The
other attendees at the Trump Tower meeting included Jared Kushner,
Trump’s son in law, and Paul Manafort, his former campaign manager.)

At his rally, Trump didn’t refer explicitly to the grand jury. But he
made more clear than ever what his strategy will be for responding to
the ongoing investigation: rubbishing it, attacking his Democratic
tormentors, and seeking to rally his base of white working-class and
middle-class voters. “They can’t beat us at the voting booths, so they’re
trying to cheat you out of the future and the future that you want,”
Trump told the crowd. “They are trying to cheat you out of the
leadership you want with a fake story that is demeaning to all of us and,
most impurely, demeaning to our country and demeaning to our
Constitution.”

At previous rallies, Trump had mentioned the Russia investigation in
passing and dismissed it quickly. On Thursday, he spoke about the
subject for almost five minutes, which was almost as long as the speech
given by Jim Justice, the governor of West Virginia, who announced at
the event that he is changing his party affiliation from Democrat to
Republican. (Justice was on message, too: “What in the world is wrong
with us as people?” he exclaimed. “Have we not heard enough about the
Russians?”)

“The reason why Democrats only talk about the totally made-up Russia
story is because they have no message, no agenda, and no vision,” Trump
said, about fifteen minutes into his forty-minute address, which
otherwise ranged over his familiar themes of economic protectionism, law
and order, nationalism, and self-praise. “It just makes them feel better
when they have nothing left to talk about.” Then Trump played what he
clearly regards as a winning line, at least in places such as
Huntington, which voted for him overwhelmingly last November. “What the
prosecutors should be looking at are Hillary Clinton’s thirty-three
thousand deleted e-mails,” he said, prompting some people in the crowd
to take up the chant of “Lock her up! Lock her up!” “And they should be
looking at the paid Russian speeches,” Trump went on, gesticulating
vigorously with his hands. “And the owned Russian companies. Or let them
look at the uranium that she sold that is now in the hands of very angry
Russians.”

Having delivered this familiar farrago of innuendo and outright
conspiracy theory, Trump returned to the actual Russian investigation.
“Most people know there were no Russians in our campaign—there never
were,” he said. “We didn’t win because of Russia. We won because of you,
that I can tell you. We won because we totally outworked the other side.
We won because millions of patriotic Americans voted to take back their
country.”

Trump appeared energized, as he always does when he stands before his
most adoring supporters. And in a favorable setting he is, of course, a
highly effective demagogue. But even though the rally probably cheered
him up, and served as a reminder to Republicans on Capitol Hill that he
still has some fervent supporters, the appearance did little to address
the dual problems he faces.

The latest developments in the Russia story, together with all the other
recent setbacks and scandals, are gradually undermining Trump’s support,
even among his base. According to the latest opinion poll from
Quinnipiac University, Trump’s approval rating is down to thirty-three per
cent. More alarming for Trump, the poll also indicated that fifty per
cent of whites without college degrees now disapprove of his
performance, compared to just forty-three per cent who approve. In all
the previous Quinnipiac surveys, Trump’s net approval rating in this
demographic had been positive.

To be sure, Trump can still assemble big, enthusiastic crowds in places
like West Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio. But it is hard to see what he
can do to stop the drip-drip-drip from the Russia story. We know from
his recent criticisms of Jeff Sessions, the Attorney General, that the
President would love someone to rid him of Mueller and his
investigation—but for now, at least, it looks as though Sessions’s job
is safe.

Even without involving Sessions, Trump could conceivably follow Richard
Nixon’s example and take the initiative himself to fire the special
counsel. But he’d need to find someone at the Justice Department willing
to issue the order, and to engage in such a course of action now, when
everybody knows a grand jury has been impanelled, would create a huge
political storm—perhaps even a fatal one for his Presidency.

If Mueller stays in his job, the conclusion of his investigation could
still be a long way off. The special counsel is still adding to his
staff and, at least in some areas of his investigation, ramping up the
process of gathering information. (Impanelling a grand jury is a way for
prosecutors to get subpoenas issued.) Earlier this week, Greg Andres, a
veteran criminal prosecutor who headed the Justice Department’s fraud
division from 2010 to 2012, left a lucrative job in private practice and
became the sixteenth lawyer on Mueller’s team. “It’s an indication that
the investigation is going to extend well into 2018,” Robert Ray, who
succeeded Kenneth Starr as the independent counsel during the Whitewater
investigation, told Reuters. “Whether it extends beyond 2018 is an open
question.”

At one point in his speech on Thursday, Trump seemed to acknowledge that
Mueller and he are both in this is for the long haul. “I just hope the
final determination is a truly honest one, which is what the millions of
people who gave us our big win in November deserve,” he said. That was a
self-serving statement, of course. But in a speech that was long on
bravado and denial, it was about as close as Trump came to acknowledging
the reality he faces.