In the fractious world of Middle Eastern politics, Mohammed
bin Salman is seen either as a long-awaited young reformer shaking up
the world’s most autocratic society, or as an impetuous and
inexperienced princeling whose rapid rise to power could destabilize
Saudi Arabia, the preëminent sheikhdom on the energy-rich Arabian
Peninsula. Either way, the thirty-one-year-old is now set to be the
kingdom’s next ruler—potentially for the next half century—following an
abrupt shakeup in the royal family.
On Wednesday, King Salman, who is eighty-one and frail, ousted his more
seasoned heir—a fifty-seven-year-old nephew who crushed Al Qaeda cells
in Saudi Arabia during decades as the counterterrorism tsar—in favor of
Prince Mohammed, the monarch’s seventh and favorite son. The sprawling
royal family has traditionally shared power among the first generation
of sons of Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, the founding father of modern Saudi
Arabia. When he died in 1953, he had fathered forty-three sons and even
more daughters. Since then, an artful balancing act has distributed
politics, privilege, and financial perks among the royal family’s many
branches. The arrangement preëmpted serious dissent.
Now, in a royal decree, the king’s move has bypassed his own brothers,
hundreds of royals in the second generation who thought that they had a
shot at the kingship, and even his own older sons. Prince Mohammed is
the youngest heir apparent in Saudi history—by decades. In a country
long ruled by men who grew up without air-conditioning or direct-dial
phones, the new Crown Prince talks of growing up playing video games,
carries an iPhone, and talks openly about idolizing Steve Jobs.
Not everyone is happy. The Saudi game of thrones comes at a tumultuous
time. The desert kingdom is trapped in a costly and open-ended war in
Yemen, which has been called its Vietnam. Plummeting oil prices have
forced it to dig deep—more than a hundred billion dollars deep—into foreign-exchange
reserves to cover its deficit. It is in the midst of a tense societal
transformation, as more than sixty per cent of its population is under
thirty-five and the majority of university students are now female. Yet,
for all the stereotypes of Saudi gold-plated wealth and ruby-encrusted
self-indulgence, more than a third of the country’s youth are
unemployed. And women still can’t drive.
The big question is: Why did the king make the appointment now? Was
President Trump’s trip last month, orchestrated largely by Prince
Mohammed, the turning point? Was the decision influenced by the age of
the king, who reportedly suffers from dementia?
Was it driven by the need for resolution regarding the kingdom’s future
at a time when the Middle East faces existential challenges to its
countries, borders, and millions of residents? Was it the sway of Prince
Mohammed’s influential mother—the king’s third wife? Possibly, it was
all of the above.
“The king may have felt that, with all the issues on the table now,
clarity in terms of leadership and succession were paramount,” Ali
Shihabi, the executive director of the Arabia Foundation, in Washington,
told me. “After being led by old men for the last fifty years, Saudi
Arabia needs to be led by a younger man open to new ideas and willing to
take risks.”
The new Crown Prince was a total unknown before his father assumed the
throne, in January, 2015. Three of his older brothers—by the king’s
first wife—were better known and considered more accomplished. One was
the first Arab astronaut; he flew on the space shuttle, in 1985. Another
son became the country’s deputy oil minister. A third is a political
scientist educated at Oxford. In contrast, M.B.S.—a monogram that has
become his moniker—was educated in the kingdom and was a mere adviser to
his father. He was a virtual asterisk in the House of Saud.
The transformation happened overnight. Upon King Salman’s ascension, he
appointed Prince Mohammed, still in his twenties, to be the country’s
top decision-maker on defense, oil, and economic development, with total
control over the royal court and the king’s agenda. He became the
youngest defense minister in Saudi history—and the “youngest holder of
this position in the world,” according to the House of Saud Web
site,
despite no military training. He was also chosen to head a newly formed Council for Economic and Development Affairs and
to chair a
new Supreme Council for Saudi Aramco, the body that oversees the world’s
largest oil-producing company. The last title alone provides influence
well beyond Saudi borders. Aramco pumps some ten million barrels of oil
a day—or about one in nine barrels consumed daily worldwide, according to the Financial Times.
M.B.S. also became a diplomatic emissary, meeting with world leaders,
from Barack Obama to Vladimir Putin. After their meeting in 2015,
President Obama told the
Saudi-owned network Al Arabiya that the prince was “wise beyond his years.” After their talks in Moscow last month,
Putin told Prince
Mohammed, “We appreciate your ideas.”
The new Crown Prince has certainly proved to be daring. He crafted
Vision 2030, a plan to reform and diversify Saudi Arabia’s oil-centric
economy. It includes a plan to eventually sell shares in Aramco, which
is state-owned, to generate a two-trillion-dollar megafund for
non-oil-sector development and investment. He toldThe Economist that he wants a “Thatcher revolution” of privatization,
including in health care, education, and many state-owned industries.
“The Saudi Arabia that I hope for,” he said, “is not dependent on oil; a
Saudi Arabia with a growing economy; a Saudi Arabia with transparent
laws; a Saudi Arabia with a very strong position in the world; a Saudi
Arabia that can fulfill the dream of any Saudi, or his ambition, through
creating enticing incentives, the right environment; a Saudi Arabia with
sustainability; a Saudi Arabia that guarantees the participation of
everyone in decision-making.”
On foreign policy, he has charted an aggressive course in the already
volatile Middle East. The prince was the dominant voice in persuading
the king to go to war in Yemen, in 2015. He has also taken the toughest
stance against neighboring Iran. Last month, he charged that Tehran
sought to take over the Islamic holy sites in Mecca and Medina, the
birthplaces of Islam. “We are a primary target for the Iranian regime,”
he said. “We won’t wait for the battle to be in Saudi Arabia. Instead,
we’ll work so that the battle is for them in Iran.” And he is widely
considered to be the impetus for the new six-nation confrontation with
Qatar, a small country on a peninsula that juts off the Saudi coast.
The prince may have his own constituency to back him up. “With a
decidedly young population, it seems to me that having a young king
instead of an old king will be popular,” Walter Cutler, a former U.S.
Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told me. M.B.S. has fostered new forms of
entertainment for the young, including concerts and talk of a
Disneyland-like park. “The under-thirty crowd are bored to death and
looking for something to do,” Bruce Riedel, a former National Security
Council, C.I.A., and Pentagon official, said. “They have less money in
their pockets, so they can’t go to London or Dubai any longer.”
For all the Crown Prince’s big ideas, he has so far produced few big
deliverables. “He’s a proven failure when it comes to good judgment. The
war in Yemen is a disaster for the kingdom. It’s a stalemate with no end
in sight,” Riedel told me “His judgement has proven reckless in Qatar.
And Vision 2030, so far, is a work in progress. Selling shares in Aramco
may happen in 2018. Saudi-izing the workforce hasn’t produced any real
results either.
“The royal family and the clerics will at some point wonder if this kid
is up to the job,” he said. “And there is no auto-correct button in the
kingdom.”
As he defines a different future, Prince Mohammed is also trapped in a
culture of the past. On women’s rights, he acknowledged, “Some things,
even if we want to change, we cannot do.” Women make up only eighteen
per cent of the Saudi work force—one of the lowest rates
worldwide—because, he told The Economist, a woman “needs more time to
accustom herself to the idea of work. A large percentage of Saudi women
are used to the fact of staying at home.” He
later told Bloomberg, “I want to remind the world that American women had to wait long to get
their right to vote.”
Within hours, the Saudi establishment lined up to embrace the leadership
change. The ousted Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, who was also
stripped of his cabinet position as the interior minister, pledged
loyalty by kissing the hand of the new Crown Prince, who is half his
age. The Allegiance Council also voted their approval, although three of
the thirty-four were holdouts. All were senior members of the royal
family. None were identified.
The new Crown Prince also has Trump on his side. The President called
Prince Mohammed within hours of his appointment. They committed, the
White House said, to “close cooperation to advance our shared goals of
security, stability, and prosperity across the Middle East and beyond.”