The possible outcomes of the Russia investigation have always been
wildly divergent. On one end of the spectrum, it is possible that the
Russian government penetrated deep inside the Trump campaign—perhaps
with the candidate’s knowledge—and the two entities knowingly colluded
in a clearly illegal and perhaps treasonous manner, which could lead to
a delegitimization of the 2016 Presidential election in the minds of
many Americans, as well as President Trump’s impeachment. On the other
side of this continuum, it is possible that Vladimir Putin’s attack was
essentially limited to the hacking and dumping of e-mails from the D.N.C. and John
Podesta, that Russia never had any illegal assistance from Trump
or his associates, and that the entire Russia-conspiracy-theory industry will
look enormously foolish in the years ahead.

There are lots of possible outcomes in between these two extremes. The
apparent breadth and scrupulousness of the special counsel Robert
Mueller’s investigation may ensnare officials for wrongdoing unrelated
to Russian interference. Michael Flynn, for instance, might be indicted
for work he did as an unregistered foreign agent for the government of
Turkey, or for his failure to document payments from Russian entities on
government financial-disclosure forms. Similarly, Paul Manafort, the
Trump associate who seems to be in the most legal danger, may be in trouble
for work he did before he joined the Trump campaign.

Even Trump himself, according to some reporting, may have more to fear
from Mueller probing the legality of the Trump Organization’s financial
dealings than his campaign’s possible interactions with Russia. And, then again, even
these tantalizing legal outgrowths of the Russia investigation may not
amount to criminal charges. Because of the thoroughness of the F.B.I.
investigation into Hillary Clinton’s e-mail-security issues, some
commentators, especially on the right, believed that Clinton was going to be
indicted right up until the moment the case was closed.

But this week was a good one for Trump-Russia-conspiracy theorists. The
Times reported major developments about the seriousness with which Mueller is pursuing
a potential obstruction-of-justice case against the President.
And the possibility that Russian entities had help in targeting voters
using Facebook ads became a major part of the congressional investigation. But it was news about
Manafort this week that gave a boost to two theories that close watchers
of the Russia investigation have been hyping as potentially
earth-shattering.

You don’t have to be Louise Mensch, the much-mocked amateur sleuth and
Russia-conspiracy theorist, to wonder why, after years of working
closely with a Russian oligarch and pro-Russia parties in Ukraine,
Paul Manafort suddenly reëmerged in American politics as the head of the
Presidential campaign that Vladimir Putin wanted to win. One theory,
which has been floating around for months, is that after Manafort fell
out with Oleg Deripaska, the Russian oligarch who accused Manafort of
essentially stealing millions of dollars from him, he seized on Trump’s
rise as a way of currying favor with Deripaska and Putin, who is Deripaska’s
close ally.

This always seemed a bit too John le Carré to believe, but, on Wednesday,
the Washington Post reported the first morsels that give the theory some credence. “Less than two
weeks before Donald Trump accepted the Republican presidential
nomination, his campaign chairman offered to provide briefings on the
race to a Russian billionaire closely aligned with the Kremlin,” the
Post said. In another e-mail, according to the Post, Manafort seemed
to suggest that he could leverage his new role running Trump’s campaign
to settle old debts. “How do we use to get whole?” Manafort wrote to an
employee based in Kiev, referring to his prominent new role in Trump’s
campaign. The link between Manafort’s sketchy work in Ukraine and
Russia, and his interest in running Trump’s campaign, became a lot
stronger after the Post piece.

The second Russia theory that was bolstered this week also involves
Manafort, whose home in Virginia was raided by the F.B.I. in July and
who was reportedly told by Mueller’s team that he is likely to be
indicted. CNN reported this week that Manafort was the subject of a FISA warrant that gave the
F.B.I. permission to spy on his electronic communications at some point
last year and into this year. The report offers some of the most
tantalizing evidence of the white whale of Russia investigators:
outright collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian
government. “Some of the intelligence collected includes communications
that sparked concerns among investigators that Manafort had encouraged
the Russians to help with the campaign, according to three sources
familiar with the investigation,” CNN noted. “Two of these sources,
however, cautioned that the evidence is not conclusive.” The CNN report
added that the “FBI interest deepened last fall because of intercepted
communications between Manafort and suspected Russian operatives, and
among the Russians themselves.”

We know that the Russians launched a cyber campaign to help Trump win. We
know that the Trump campaign was willing to entertain assistance from
the Russian government because Manafort, Jared Kushner, and Donald
Trump, Jr., eagerly met with a Russian offering such assistance. This
latest news suggests—though the reporting is still vague—what many people have
long wondered: that Manafort may have been a crucial link between the
Trump campaign and Russians seeking to defeat Hillary Clinton. If
Mueller or congressional investigators unearth proof that Manafort
colluded with the Russians, it will fortify the narrative that the Trump
campaign worked with a foreign nation to alter the outcome of an
American Presidential election—an unprecedented event in the country’s
history. Trump could dismiss the evidence, deny knowledge of the
collusion, and dismiss the Mueller investigation as a “witch hunt.” But
this week’s disclosures moved the theorizing about Trump and Russia one step
closer to becoming a politically devastating blow to Trump’s Presidency.